Yesterday we released Revision 1 of our Pandemic Projection Model that shows 2.1 million coronavirus deaths in America by July 4th if nothing is done to stop the spread. For those who don’t usually think in terms of exponential progressions, the numbers seem impossible. But in fact, we’re already tracking very closely in terms of reality vs. the projected … Continue reading Coronavirus projection model death counts from March 6th through April 4th: How we get from 13 to 580 aggregate deaths in America
ALERT: Pandemic projection model shows 2.16 million deaths in USA by July 4th if nothing done to halt nearly all domestic travel (air, rail and roads)
Today I finished tweaking the first draft of a pandemic projection model that simulates the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. The assumptions of the model are explained here, and you will find they are extremely conservative (using R0 value of just 1.82, for example). The model’s predictions are nothing short of apocalyptic … Continue reading ALERT: Pandemic projection model shows 2.16 million deaths in USA by July 4th if nothing done to halt nearly all domestic travel (air, rail and roads)
Dr. Eddy Bettermann MD 